On paper, the 49ers and Eagles game looks like it will be action-packed. Two star-studded offenses are facing off in the NFC Wildcard, but I’m not expecting them to light up the scoreboard in this one. It will be the defenses that shine the most when the public least expects it on Sunday. 

The total in this game has plummeted from an opening line of 46.5 to 44.5 (-108), with sharp bettors hammering the under. This two-point drop reflects growing consensus that this might not be a shootout, despite two talented offenses. Instead, expect a grind-it-out, defense-heavy affair where the Eagles dictate tempo and exploit a battered 49ers unit.

The biggest reason to love the under? Philadelphia's elite run game, led by Saquon Barkley, facing San Francisco's severely depleted linebacker room and overall defense. The 49ers have been ravaged by injuries at linebacker—second-year player Tatum Bethune is out for the season with a groin issue, Dee Winters has been sidelined with an ankle, and depth is paper-thin behind veterans like Eric Kendricks. Multiple reports describe the position group as a crisis, forcing patchwork solutions in a unit already allowing chunks on the ground late in the season.

The Eagles, rested and healthy, will lean heavily on Barkley to control the clock and wear down this vulnerable front seven. Barkley, fresh off a monster season (over 1,100 rushing yards despite a loaded backfield), thrives in playoff spots—he racked up nearly 500 yards and five TDs in last year's postseason. Philly's offense goes as its run game does; expect 30+ touches for Barkley, long sustained drives that chew minutes and limit San Francisco's possessions. This keeps the score low while exploiting the 49ers' inability to stack the box effectively without elite LB support.

It won’t just be the Eagles leaning on their star running back in this one. Christian McCaffrey, who cost the 49ers a massive game against the Seahawks the other day on a potential touchdown pass he dropped right into the defender’s hands, will be looking to make up for his mistake in this game. I’m not saying he ends with 200 yards and 3 touchdowns, but I do think the 49ers feed him, milking the clock and helping this under get to the cash counter. 

On the flip side, Philadelphia's defense—one of the NFL's stingiest—can pressure Brock Purdy into mistakes, especially with a banged-up 49ers offensive line. The Eagles rank top-10 in yards allowed and excel at home, where opponents average fewer points. San Francisco's road offense dips, and their recent low-scoring loss to Seattle highlights struggles against stout fronts. The Eagles’ secondary has also stepped up down the stretch; they are starting to look like the Super Bowl defense form last year.

Playoff games often trend under anyway—conservative play-calling, higher stakes—but this setup screams clock control and field position battles. Rumor has it there’s some rain and wind in the forecast for this game as well, which certainly doesn’t hurt the under. I’m projecting a final score around 24-17 or 27-17 in a slow-burn Eagles win, comfortably below the 44.5 total. With sharp money driving the line down and the Eagles built to dominate time of possession, the under is the sharp play in what should be a physical, low-scoring rematch.