Dozic is here for one reason on this Pepperdine offense, to shoot. Not typical for a big man but he works the pick and pop or sits corner when the guards Phipps/Clark/Cooley attack the rim. The lineup fluctuates, as sometimes Dozic will play the small ball 5 while at other times they’ll have Yonatan Levy at the 5 against bigger teams. Portland’s 3PT defense has been horrid, ranking 264th in CBB allowing just over 35% from deep. So it figures to be a spot where more minutes with Dozic stretching the floor at the 5 would work. 

Portland has also struggled to stop big men from shooting from the perimeter. They haven’t faced an abundance of aggressive shooting bigs, but guys such as Olavi Suutela from Oregon State, Nate Bittle from Oregon, Paulius Murauskas from Saint Mary’s, and more have all hit this number in different matchups this season. The Portland tandem of bigs Jermaine Ballisager Webb, Cam Williams, Matus Hronsky, and James O’Donnell have continuously overplayed the ball handler on pick and rolls, leaving a lot of open space on the wing. Hence one of the reasons they’ve given up an abundance of 3PT looks. Let Dozic spray those tonight.

Michigan finally showed that they’re human last game against Wisconsin, but it’s important how they did it. It wasn’t much of anything in the paint, which is near impossible to do against the Wolverines defense. The Badgers shot 15-33 from deep, including 8-14 combined from the two big men Nolan Winter and Aleksas Bieliauskas. 

Stretching the floor is your only hope for consistent output against the Michigan frontcourt. Hannes Steinbach is capable of stretching the floor but isn’t a massive threat from the perimeter. He has yet to eclipse 3 3PA or 2 3PM in a game this season. He loves to exploit matchups that he can shoot over the top of in the paint. That’s a real tough ask against the trio of 7’3” Adey Mara, and even Yaxel/Morez Johnson if they choose to let them switch on to him. 

Steinbach is incredibly efficient and gets to the line, shooting nearly 60% and averaging 6 FTA. Michigan should make his looks as difficult as he’s seen all season, and I’ll tip cap if he’s able to string together tough buckets against this vaunted Michigan paint defense coming off a tough loss. Have investments in his less than 17.5, but has since gotten bumped down to 16.5 since BTL, and I still like it there. It’s shutdown season.