After a devastating (but profitable) 5 of 6 last week, a lot of people have begun to ask what I look for and if I can pass on any nuggets about the squares I do take. Now that we have the new site up I’ll combine the both of them while sharing this week’s lineup.

I abide by the 60/30/10 rule. 60% matchups (RBs vs bad run defenses, QBs/WRs vs bass defenses, etc.). 30% volume (are the defenses funnels – bad against run and good against pass or vice versa, expected game script, potential weather, etc.). 10% miscellaneous nuggets (coachspeak, revenge games, injuries, etc.). Is that completely made up from my brain? As far as I know, yep. And do I break every bit down every week like I show it here? God no this isn’t a college econ paper. But I gather the reads and weigh them as I see fit. This week is an unfortunate week to try and one up the 5 of 6 because this week’s slate is pretty moose. But that ain't stopping anyone around these parts. Here we go.

A pack of three run defenses I think are vulnerable. Northwestern, Arkansas, and Cincinnati. Start with Northwestern. Darius Taylor is back and healthy with a game under his belt. Taylor looked good against Oregon with 10/57 on the ground and an additional 4/40 in the air. Had he game script been one more similar to what this week’s matchup against Northwestern could be he likely would’ve had a much better game running the ball. The Wildcats have given up a 90+ yard rusher in 5 of their 7 Big Ten games, with the lone exceptions being pre-coach firing UCLA and Purdue who got shut out in the game. I like this to be a trenches game where Taylor racks up 20 touches with a big time explosive run along the way.

Let’s move to Arkansas. Their defense is bad at everything, but the 17th-worst run defense in FBS at just under 195 rush yds/game definitely piques my interest. Especially when we get a collab of the 60% and 10%. The Hogs have allowed some explosive statlines on the ground this year: 12/147 to Sutton Smith, 28/153 to Jeremiah Cobb, and 14/146 to DeSean Bishop to name a few. Wisner is a candidate to be the next not just because of the matchup, but also because of what we saw last week. I like taking coaches’ words at face value when they talk bluntly about the obvious. There was a billion reasons why Texas got mucked in Athens, one of them being that the run game was non-existent. Doesn’t sound crazy because Georgia’s defense is a pass funnel, so the matchup calls for an Arch-heavy script on paper. But Wisner had 5 rushes for 30 yards on the opening drive of the game and was only handed the ball 4 more times all night. Sark had said all week they need to run the football not only to move the ball but to better set up the play-action. Outside of Miss St this is probably the best matchup on your SEC schedule you could ask for to do it against. I’ll buy in.

Then we take it to the house Sorsby built in Cincy. I don’t really understand how Cincy’s run defense isn’t good with Dontay Corleone in the middle but it simply isn’t. It makes even less sense that up the middle is their weakest point against the run. Their 90th ranked run defense would have much worse numbers if they didn’t benefit from one of the easiest schedules in the Big 12, but you can’t hide from LJ Martin. After a couple weeks where he got injured against Iowa St and then ran into the Texas Tech wall, he responded with 88 yards against TCU. Wasn’t efficient on 21 carries but TCU’s run stuffing is the strength of the defense. This matchup is quite the opposite and he should have his way with this front seven.

On to the passing scripts, one QB and one pass catcher, both playing defenses that rank as top 30 rush defenses and should produce more pass-heavy game scripts. First with Cutter Boley going against Vanderbilt. Vandy has given up some massive games through the air including 353 to Ashton Daniels in their last game. Yes, that's not a typo. Attacking their secondary is the way to beat this Vandy defense, especially in the short game. They give up their fair share of explosives but they largely come from YAC. In watching Boley ever since he became the starter I’d say his greatest strength is his decisiveness in the pocket and his willingness to take what the defense gives him. The Vandy defense should give him plenty and he also will likely be operating from a trailing game script at least early on.

The sole pass catcher in this week’s lineup is not exactly from an offense known for slinging rock. Houston hosts TCU whose defensive numbers are relatively similar to Vandy’s. Pass funnel team who also does not mind sending blitzes often. What has that led to? TCU getting shredded over the middle for the last few weeks. Houston’s pass attack really doesn’t have many different answers for that than Tanner Koziol. Houston isn’t a pass happy team by nature, but this game could produce some of the same volume Connor Weigman has had over the last couple games against WVU and UCF (35 and 31 pass attempts). The good part is that their passing volume is concentrated. Weigman has 178 completions this year and 111 of them are to either Amare Thomas or Tanner Koziol. Thomas is the outside option that is more of a vertical threat and Koziol is the safety blanket over the middle with big time YAC ability. Safety Bud Clark, the captain of the defense who patrols the middle of the field, is also out for the Frogs today. The middle of the field was a problem before for this defense but now…

Now here’s one that may fall into the miscellaneous category. There are only five defenses who give up more yards on the ground per game than North Texas (222 rush yds/gm). The fact that they’re 17.5-point favorites would usually scare me off of any rush backing but not in this one. Rice runs a unique gun triple option system and even if they’re down big in the game they aren’t throwing very much. North Texas has played both Army and Navy (which does make their run defense numbers look a tad worse than they are) in very different games. They went back and forth in a high-scoring 45-38 win against Army but shut down Navy 31-17 and that game really wasn’t even that close. In both of those games their edge rushers crashed hard on everything inside and had real trouble containing the QBs. Blake Horvath had 19/112 and Dewayne Coleman had 23/117 in those games. Is the Rice system exactly the same as Army and Navy? No, but truth be told UNT has had issues with all the mobile QBs they’ve faced this year. 66 for Broc Lowry, 59 for Bishop Davenport, and 82 for Byrum Brown including runs of 25+ for each of them. I think Chase Jenkins has an explosive run or two in his bag tonight against the Mean Green defense and maybe that’s what gets the crowd jumping on free beer night in Houston.

Link to tail: https://prizepicks.onelink.me/gCQS/shareEntry?entryId=ffc90c8848d3248917c988ed9ec282c4