The Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams in a pivotal NFC West showdown on Thursday Night Football at Lumen Field, with both teams sitting at 11-3 and vying for the division lead and top NFC seed. Seattle enters as (-120) moneyline favorites, and there's solid value in backing the home team outright in this matchup of two of the best teams in the NFL. With a four-game win streak, elite defense, and explosive passing game, the Seahawks are poised to exploit the Rams' vulnerabilities—particularly with star WR Davante Adams (hamstring) sidelined—and secure a statement victory to end their regular-season series split.

Seattle's defense has been a cornerstone of their 11-3 campaign, ranking among the NFL's best by allowing just 17.3 points per game (3rd) and 242 total points against (top-5). Under defensive-minded head coach Mike Macdonald, they've stifled opponents, holding foes to under 20 points in eight games, including a gritty 18-16 win over the Colts last week where they forced two turnovers. This unit excels at home, where the "12th Man" crowd disrupts communication—Seattle is 5-2 straight-up at Lumen Field, outscoring visitors by an average of 10 points. Facing a Rams offense that's potent but banged-up, the Seahawks' secondary (allowing 213 pass YPG) can contain Matthew Stafford, who's thrown for 3,722 yards and 37 TDs but faces pressure without Adams, who injured his hamstring in Week 15 against Detroit.

Offensively, QB Sam Darnold has elevated Seattle to 28.9 points per game (5th), completing 67% of passes for over 3,400 yards and 22 TDs with only 22 picks. His mobility adds another layer, as seen in recent escapes leading to scores. The receiving corps is red-hot, led by Jaxon Smith-Njigba's record-setting pace: 96 catches for 1,541 yards and 9 TDs through 14 games, on track for 1,871 yards—shattering DK Metcalf's franchise mark. JSN has four TDs in his last four outings, exploiting mismatches. Don’t sleep on their two-headed backfield, either, with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet primed for a great performance in a windy, rainy Thursday Night Football game. This attack averages 8.8 yards per play at home, and should overwhelm a Rams defense allowing 24.1 points per game lately.

Seattle is 10-4 ATS overall, 8-3 ATS as favorites, and 4-2 ATS in that role at home. While the Rams have been solid ATS as well, they will be missing their best redzone target in Davante Adams tonight. Stafford is undefeated vs. Seattle as a Ram (7-0) in his career, but short-week road games in this raucous environment could lead to his first ever loss against the Seahawks. Seattle has won four straight games, but a couple of them were extremely sketchy wins. They’ve shown immense amounts of grit, heart and effort in all of those wins, proving they are a legitimate Super Bowl candidate capable of hanging with any team in the NFL. Tonight, they take down the public’s favorite to win this year’s Super Bowl at home. Matt Stafford isn’t going to know what hit him.  

In a playoff-like atmosphere, the Seahawks' home edge, defensive prowess, and JSN's dominance propel them to a 24-20 outright win in a low-scoring affair. Lock in the moneyline at (-120) for another primetime cash.