Look man, I’m all for squaring up with a goat when it makes sense. But on Thanksgiving it just means more. The itch I get for the WR3s and the RB2s and the weird squares that get lost in the shuffle below anything that ends up in Trent’s nukenheimer lineup just amplifies to a new level. I’d rather go down swinging with a guy trying to have his turkey day moment rather than clicking and praying the guys who have them every week. Let’s see who wants it.

As for the combo TD square, those who know me well know why I’m interested. Golden is still questionable, so something to keep an eye on but has yet to score his first NFL TD. If he does end up playing the matchup makes plenty of sense for him. The Packers offense is going to have to take some one on one shots downfield against one of the most man-heavy defenses in football. Christian Watson is built for that, hence the love for him this week and I have no problem with that.

But as well as we know this, so does Kelvin Sheppard. I think the Lions will throw some extra attention Watson’s way at times and force a counter from the Pack offense which Golden could be a beneficiary of in the endzone. On to Monty. His role has been diminishing lately big time with just 11 carries in the last two weeks. Gibbs just went off for 264 all-purpose yards and 3 TDs in a golden matchup against the Giants last week, which has led many to believe that Monty has no role in this offense anymore. I don’t think that’s completely true especially against a GB run defense that is more vulnerable up the middle than to the outside. Not to mention they drew up a rollout play on the goal line to Montgomery last week that had him wide open for a walk-in TD but Goff was under pressure and couldn't get it to him. Get your lick back for him Dan.

Now we can talk about his receiving yards. The Packers secondary limits explosives and gives up a lot underneath. When that’s the case we all often go to RBs and TEs. The Lions were already without Sam LaPorta and are now without Brock Wright, leaving them with Anthony Firkser and Ross Dwelley. Two guys that I think can also be worth a shout at their respective receiving yard lines of 10.5 and 7.5 but blocking TEs at the end of the day.

Jahmyr Gibbs had 10 catches against the Packers in Week 1 and is coming off of 11 catches last week, hence all of the reception ladders that have been marinating on twitter for days. If there’s any play that looks like the easiest one on the board this week it’s definitely that. But listen, I’m not here to doubt Gibbs after what he’s done this year but I much rather prefer the value on Montgomery. Especially considering the need for the Lions to get creative with the personnel usage against this defense that knows Goff of all quarterbacks is very willing to take what they give them. I think there’s a creative misdirection screen or something coming to give the Packers a look they haven’t seen yet this year to get Montgomery 12+.

Another square that has something to do with an injury in the TE room, as Noah Gray is out this week for Kansas City. Gray is typically good for one big 3rd down catch every week or so and now that volume is gone. The Chiefs leaned into a pretty heavy run script last week against the Colts for a majority of the game as Kareem Hunt had a career high 30 carries. This week you face a Cowboys defense that is getting healthier and looking stronger but still a plus matchup for Mahomes in the pass game. We’ve heard it all week, the Cowboys are an extremely zone-heavy defense and while Mahomes’ numbers haven’t been great against man this season he’s torn up zone. Will the Cowboys likely toss some different looks at him? Yes of course they know as well as we do, but it isn’t the strength of their defense. Mahomes should be slinging rock in this one.

Trey Smith is also out, which is a blow to the run game and blow to the interior pass protection of the Chiefs O-Line. Mahomes should be forced to get the ball out quick at times in this one and flushed out of the pocket a few times. Rice and Kelce should take a bulk of the quick hitters across the middle while there’s more fluidity in the options towards the sidelines. The Cowboys have allowed many other backup TEs to hit this line, including in the last three games they played (Grant Calcaterra, Ian Thomas AND Michael Mayer, Elijah Higgins). A majority of those routes were to the sideline, which is typically all of what Tonyan has run this year. Obviously a square like this is likely all or nothing, we are betting on him getting as many or more catches as he has had all year to this point. The opportunity may present itself today.

Ok we get to sneak a goat in for the late night game, but not necessarily his most supergoat square right now. He hasn’t run much of late, and some of that you can definitely contribute to his injuries. But I also think it has to do with the fact that he’s faced Tyrod Taylor, Dillion Gabriel/Shedeur, JJ McCarthy, and Tua since he returned. Sure a few of those games were close at times but they really didn’t require him to be a gamebreaker on the ground. Those were games you could keep the offense vanilla, keep Lamar healthy, and play it conservative because you knew those QBs wouldn’t beat you. Now you face Burrow and an offense that has shown you they can keep up. Derrick Henry has looked like a shell of himself without the real threat of Lamar on the ground to open up rushing lanes for him. This seems like the perfect time to unleash a healthy Lamar on the ground to maximize what you can get out of your run game and keep the explosive Bengals offense off the field. There's a lot of focus on what the Ravens pass attack should do to the Bengals secondary in this matchup, but I think the run game desperately needs a reshaping going into the homestretch of the season and this is how we see that take place.