One of the best college football games of the season takes place at M&T Bank Stadium on Saturday. There is so much history in this rivalry, a game that has taken place since 1890, had ten United States Presidents in attendance, from Theodore Roosevelt to Donald Trump in 2024. The matchup back in 1893 was the first game where the football helmet was worn. Navy leads the all-time series with 63 wins, compared to Army’s 55 wins. 

Navy had a fourteen game win streak against Army from 2002-2015. They’ve dominated this series for the majority of the last 25 years, but these games are typically close and low scoring. The under has hit in nine of the last ten matchups between these teams, and the one over was actually last season when they faced-off in Landover, Maryland. 

The total in tomorrow's Army-Navy clash is set at 38.5, an extremely low total for a college football game in this day and age. These teams know each other very well, and run similar run-heavy offenses. Dating back to 2005, unders in service academy matchups—including this rivalry—have hit at a staggering 46-12-1 clip, good for nearly an 80% success rate that's practically unbeatable in betting circles. Navy passes the ball a little more with Blake Horvath than they used to, but both teams are still, emphasizing run-heavy attacks that chew clock with short, methodical gains—think four-yard rushes that keep possessions limited and the scoreboard stagnant.

Army's offense epitomizes this slow, run-heavy style, ranking dead last in FBS pace while leading the nation in run rate on standard and passing downs. They convert yards inefficiently, scoring just one touchdown every 14 plays and relying on long drives that often stall in the red zone, bending but rarely breaking defenses. Navy, while more explosive under QB Blake Horvath (top-10 yards per play this season), still operates within a Wing-T variation that prioritizes control over fireworks, ranking seventh in offensive success rate but generating chunk plays sparingly rather than constant bombs. Their defense mirrors this, excelling at forcing punts or field goals by limiting big plays—perfect against Army's 92nd-ranked rush success rate.

If you’ve never watched or been to an Army vs Navy football game, you’re missing out. This is truly one of the best rivalries in all of sports. These games are notoriously cautious, with high stakes like the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy on the line, leading to risk-averse calls, quick-hitting runs, and a premium on field position over aggressive scoring. Last year's 31-13 outlier bucked the trend with some rare, uncharacteristic explosiveness, but you can expect some offensive regression in this one. Weather in Baltimore could add another layer—forecasts call for chilly temps and some potential wind.

Navy's ability to dictate the tempo in this game will make it very hard for an Army team that’s scored just 35 TDs all season. Mutual familiarity between these two rivals will limit any potential big plays. Last year, Navy shocked the world and upset Army as pretty big underdogs. I’m sure Jeff Monken and the Black Knights are dying for some revenge this year. I wouldn't be surprised if they keep this game close, but they won’t be able to do that in a high scoring affair. Expect a low-scoring nail biter, a tale as old as time in America’s Game.