Kirk Cousins has taken the Falcons to the next level, winning three straight games and pulling off some crazy upsets along the way. Does he have one more win left in him? As he still tries to cement a role under center for the 2026 season, only the probable Rookie of the Year Tyler Shough stands in his way…

Kirk Cousins enters this NFC South rivalry finale with fire in his eyes, determined to cap a resilient 2025 campaign on a high note. After a rollercoaster season where he started on the bench behind Michael Penix, Cousins has surged lately, throwing for 373 yards and three TDs in a key win over Tampa Bay. He then went on the beat the Cardinals and pull off a massive upset against Matthew Stafford and the Rams. With the Falcons riding a three-game winning streak—their longest of the year—he's locked in, distributing to playmakers like Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts. This isn't a meaningless Week 18 tilt; a Falcons victory could play spoiler in the division race, helping Carolina's path or simply sweeping the Saints for the first time since 2016. At home as -3.5 favorites, Cousins thrives in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, where Atlanta's offense averages over 24 PPG this season.

Contrast that with the spotlight glaring on Saints rookie QB Tyler Shough. The 25-year-old has dazzled during New Orleans' late surge, going 5-3 in eight starts with 300-yard games and a strong OROY case (62.6% completion, 262 YPG average). But this finale ramps up the pressure immensely—Shough needs a signature performance to lock up Rookie of the Year against a Falcons defense that's gelled down the stretch. Atlanta ranks mid-pack overall but has stiffened lately, holding opponents under 20 PPG in their win streak while forcing turnovers. Their pass rush (top-15 in sacks) and secondary will test Shough's inexperience on the road, where he's thrown five picks this year. One off-game could sink all the momentum he’s built.

This is a classic contrarian spot: fading the Saints off a four-game winning streak—their first since the Sean Payton era—despite a 6-10 record reflecting early struggles. Public money piles on hot teams in meaningless spots, but New Orleans is eliminated and playing loose as spoilers. Atlanta, meanwhile, has pride on the line in a heated rivalry, with coach Raheem Morris emphasizing a strong finish.

Add in recent home dominance, Robinson's explosiveness against a Saints run D allowing 130+ YPG lately, and Atlanta's 9-7 ATS record overall. Kirk Cousin’s veteran poise defeats the rookie with nerves—Cousins carves up a gassed Saints secondary, pulling away late for the -3.5 cover.