Tonight's ALCS Game 3 at T-Mobile Park pits the Seattle Mariners against the Toronto Blue Jays, with the Mariners holding a commanding 2-0 series lead. Julio Rodriguez, Seattle's star centerfielder, faces a daunting challenge against Blue Jays starter Shane Bieber. The prop bet in question is Rodriguez going under 1.5 total hits + runs + RBIs (HRRBI), a line that leans heavily under given the matchup dynamics and historical data. Here's why Rodriguez is poised to fall short of that mark, likely totaling 0 or 1 in this combined category.

First, consider the historical head-to-head between Rodriguez and Bieber. In his career, Rodriguez has faced Bieber in nine at-bats, managing just one hit for a dismal .111 batting average. Bieber, a former Cy Young winner, excels at mixing pitches—his curveball and slider generate whiffs that exploit Rodriguez's known tendency to chase outside the zone. Rodriguez's career chase rate hovers around 35%, making him vulnerable to Bieber's off-speed arsenal. In a high-stakes playoff game, where Bieber is pitching with Toronto's season on the line after a mid-2025 trade from Cleveland, expect Bieber to attack those weaknesses aggressively, limiting Rodriguez to perhaps a single weak contact or none at all.

Returning from Tommy John surgery, Bieber’s posted a 4-2 record with a 3.57 ERA and a stingy 1.02 WHIP over seven starts and 40.1 innings. His strikeout total of 37 translates to roughly 8.3 K/9, demonstrating retained swing-and-miss stuff despite some hard contact allowed (48.2% hard-hit rate). Against a Mariners lineup that's been opportunistic but not overpowering in the playoffs, Bieber's ability to induce grounders and pop-ups should suppress extra-base opportunities for Rodriguez, who thrives on power but struggles when pitchers keep him off-balance.

Rodriguez's own 2025 stats reveal vulnerabilities. He hit .267 with 32 homers and 95 RBIs, solid numbers, but his .798 OPS ranks tied for 49th league-wide, indicating inconsistency. More tellingly, against the Blue Jays career-wise, Rodriguez bats just .220 with only one homer and two RBIs in 24 games, scoring 10 runs total. This suggests Toronto's pitching staff, bolstered by Bieber, has his number. In recent form, Rodriguez is hitting .217 over his last seven games, with just five hits and one homer—hardly the output needed to rack up HRRBI’s.

Playoff intensity amplifies these factors. With Seattle leading 2-0, the Blue Jays are desperate, and Bieber, starting on the road, will likely pitch conservatively to avoid walks or mistakes. Rodriguez, batting in the heart of the order, might see fewer hittable pitches if runners aren't on base ahead of him. Runs and RBIs require team support, but against a motivated Bieber, the Mariners' offense could stall early.

In summary, Rodriguez's poor track record versus Bieber and the Blue Jays, combined with Bieber's effective 2025 rebound and Rodriguez's middling recent form, points squarely to an under performance. Expect a quiet night: maybe a lone hit or one walk leading to a run, but not enough to eclipse 1.5 HRRBI. This matchup screams low-output for J-Rod.