Typically the start of Bowl season lacks great matchups, but we are blessed with a pretty decent one on Wednesday night between two west-coast squads. It’s a home game for the Rainbow Warriors, as this one will be played on the rock. Hawaii welcomes in California, fresh off a massive win against SMU to keep them out of the ACC Championship game. Will the Bears have what it takes to string together two impressive wins to end the season, or will Hawaii get it done in their home turf?

In the tropical showdown of the 2025 Hawaii Bowl, the Rainbow Warriors enter as slight favorites on the moneyline in a battle of freshman phenoms: Hawaii's Micah Alejado versus the Golden Bears' Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. While Cal boasts a gritty 7-5 record, Hawaii's 8-4 campaign and home-island edge at Clarence T.C. Ching Field make this a prime spot to back the 'Bows outright. The line tells the tale—opening with Cal as a -1.5 chalk at some books, it's flipped toward Hawaii at -1.5 across most platforms, with moneyline juice tightening from -105 to -115 on sharp action. Public bettors (over 55% on Cal) are backing the ACC brand, but pros see value in fading a distracted Bears squad amid coaching flux.

Hawaii's momentum surges with Alejado's bombshell announcement: The Mountain West Freshman of the Year is returning for 2026, quashing portal rumors and igniting team morale just days before kickoff. The Ewa Beach native torched defenses for 2,832 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and just 9 picks this season. His poise in big spots—engineering three fourth-quarter comebacks—will shine against a Cal secondary that's surrendered 8.1 yards per attempt in losses. Contrast that with Sagapolutele, another Hawaiian slinger who's flashed potential (3,117 yards, 17 TDs) but faltered down the stretch with 9 interceptions and a 55.8 QBR, often forcing throws under pressure. Hawaii's opportunistic D, ranked top-40 in turnovers forced, feasts on such mistakes.

Cal's coaching carousel adds chaos: Though Tosh Lupoi was named head coach on Dec. 4, the late hire—following Justin Wilcox's exit—leaves players distracted, with opt-outs and portal entries piling up. Key linebackers Buom Jock and Curlee Thomas bolted, weakening a unit that's allowed 28 PPG in road tilts. Whispers of more transfers loom, sapping focus in a bowl that feels like a vacation for the Bears but a homecoming for Hawaii. The 'Bows, winners of three of their last five to close the regular season, thrive in Honolulu's electric atmosphere—undefeated at home this year with crowds topping 15,000. Cal's cross-Pacific trek and 3-3 road record spell vulnerability, especially against Hawaii's ground attack (4.6 YPC) led by a healthy backfield.

Beyond the intangibles, metrics favor Hawaii: They rank 28th in offensive efficiency per ESPN FPI, exploiting Cal's 92nd-ranked pass defense. Bowl trends back home teams in non-Power matchups (62% ATS since 2020); expect a 28-24 Warrior win. Fade the Bears' distractions—Alejado's star power seals it. At (-115), Hawaii's moneyline is the play; ride the Rainbow Warriors to victory.