Fading the Eagles has become a weekly occurrence for me this season. Tonight, I will be partaking in the Philly fade once again, but in a different fashion…

Monday Night Football tonight delivers a marquee interconference clash at SoFi Stadium, matching-up the 8-4 Philadelphia Eagles and the 8-4 Los Angeles Chargers in a battle between two playoff hopefuls. The Eagles are favored by 2.5 points (-110) and the total is sitting at o/u 41.5 (-110). This total feels deceptively low for two offenses that can absolutely light it up offensively. Doesn’t the over look a little easy at this number in a primetime matchup between Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts? There are so many stars on both offenses, and this low total makes my contrarian senses tingle…

Let’s fade Justin Herbert tonight. The Chargers' franchise QB just had surgery on his hand the other day, and is supposedly good to go for tonight’s matchup against Philadelphia. He's skipped full practices, limited to walkthroughs with a bulky cast-glove hybrid, and admitted it'll cramp his under-center snaps and handoffs. Herbert's been lights-out when healthy (2,842 yards, 21 TDs, 66.9% completion), but quarterbacks tend to struggle a bit in their first game back post-surgery. Everyone’s excited about the returning young running back Omarion Hampton, but against Philly's front? Good luck Omarion, you’ve got one heck of a matchup in your first game back from injury along with your quarterback.

That low total? It's a trap for casuals eyeing Philly's offensive firepower and LA's home cooking (5-2 outright at home this season). Yet both squads have sputtered at times this season: Eagles scoring 15.5 PPG over their last four (0-4 to the under), Chargers held foes to 17.8 in their past six games as well. This total screams sharp under—contrarian to the "offensive explosion" narrative, especially with Philly's O-line banged up and struggling for the majority of the season forcing Hurts into more designed runs against a run-stuffing D, and let’s not even get into Saquon’s post-Super Bowl struggles this season…

Now, the defenses: underrated juggernauts of these two squads that are primed to dominate. Philly's unit is channeling its 2024 Super Bowl form, ranking top-5 in EPA per play (-0.08) and sacks (42, tied-3rd), with edge rushers feasting on quick pressures and blitzes. They've allowed just 20.8 PPG (7th), rebounding from early-season woes to suffocate passers (6.2 YPA allowed, 4th). Tonight, they will be facing a hobbled Justin Herbert, a matchup they should find success in especially considering the Chargers recent offensive line injuries. The Birds' secondary (Cooper DeJean, Quinyon Mitchell, Adoree’ Jackson) locks down Ladd McConkey (5 TDs in last 8) and Keenan Allen, along with limiting Herbert’s success in the pocket.

The Chargers' D? A star-studded shutdown crew, third-fewest yards allowed at 275.3 YPG—trailing only Cleveland (268.1) and Houston (265.7). Jesse Minter's scheme ranks 2nd in passer rating against (78.4) and 4th in red-zone stops (48.6%), with veterans Derwin James Jr. (36 tackles, 1 INT) and Khalil Mack (4.5 sacks) terrorizing backfields. They've held opponents to 20.0 PPG at home, forcing one-dimensional games—perfect vs. an Eagles run game that's dipped to 4.1 YPC lately. Expect stalled drives and plenty of punts from the Eagles tonight; although I think they win this game, it certainly won’t be pretty..

Unders have hit in 4 of Philly's last 5 (80%) and 7 of LA's last 9 against NFC foes. MNF home dogs like the Chargers are 23-9-2 to the under in the last 34 (71.9%, 40 PPG on average). The weather won’t be a factor in the dome, but prime-time pressure amplifies conservativeness—both coaches (Nick Sirianni, Jim Harbaugh) preach clock control in tight spots. The Eagles need to stop the bleeding after two straight losses. Don’t expect them to do anything cute or new in this one, they will try to establish the run early and play bull ball with Saquon and Hurts for all 4 quarters.

This one won’t be a shootout; it's going to feel like a playoff type atmosphere, and playoff games typically go under and are lower scoring. The Eagles grind out a 20-17 victory, and the under cashes with ease on Monday Night Football Lock it in before the total drops or the odds get worse.