It’s been a tough couple of weeks for both the Falcons and the Buccaneers. Each team has only won one game in their last five, but only one of these teams currently has playoff aspirations. Will Baker Mayfield’s Buccaneers stop the bleeding with a much needed win at home tonight, or will Kirk Cousins and the Falcons shock the world and pull off the upset?

The Atlanta Falcons head into Thursday Night Football as 5.5-point underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but this NFC South clash has all the makings of a gritty, low-scoring affair where the Falcons keep it close—or even steal a win outright. With Kirk Cousins back under center, Atlanta's offense has shown signs of life, and their defense matches up well against a banged-up Bucs squad. Here's why the Falcons cover the spread in this Week 15 matchup.

First, Cousins' return has stabilized the Falcons' attack. In his three starts since coming back, Cousins has averaged 6.1 yards per attempt, but more importantly, he's managed the game effectively, something Michael Penix struggled with before his injury . Against a Buccaneers defense ranked 20th in EPA per pass, Cousins should find openings, especially with play-action to Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts. Robinson, in particular, has been a beast, carrying the Falcons through their recent skid with consistent production. Atlanta generates more total yards per game (330.0) than Tampa Bay (315.0), and their inefficiencies play into Tampa's strengths less than you might think. If the Falcons lean on Robinson early, they can control the clock and limit Baker Mayfield's opportunities. Cousins also couldn’t be more due to cover a spread, as he’s struggled mightily in his last couple of starts. Don’t be surprised when he changes that narrative tonight…

Defensively, Atlanta is the stronger unit here. The Falcons rank 14th in total defense (322.5 yards per game) and boast one of the NFL's best pass rushes, which could harass a hobbled Mayfield dealing with shoulder and oblique issues. Tampa Bay has scored 23 or fewer points in six of their last seven games, and Mayfield hasn't topped 194 passing yards in his past four outings. The Bucs' offense is further hampered by injuries: Mike Evans is probably going to play but will be on a snapcount, Cade Otton is doubtful, and Tristan Wirfs is a game time decision. Atlanta held Tampa to just 260 total yards and 159 passing in their Week 1 meeting, a 23-20 Bucs win that easily could've gone the other way.

Divisional familiarity breeds close games, and the trends back the Falcons as dogs. Atlanta is 3-1 ATS as a +4.5 or bigger underdog this season, while Tampa Bay has covered just one of three games as a -4.5 or larger favorite. The Bucs are also 1-5 ATS at home this season. The Falcons have covered three straight trips to Raymond James Stadium and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Bucs. Sharp money is on Atlanta +4.5 (with 63% handle despite public bets on Tampa), signaling value in the points. Plus, Tampa has failed to cover in five straight games, and are coming off a loss to the struggling Saints. Shockingly, Baker Mayfield has struggled in his career ATS as a favorite…

The total sits at 44.5, reflecting expectations of a defensive battle—primetime unders hit at 56.5% long-term, and Atlanta's last eight Thursday games have gone under. With poor field conditions from last week's rain in Tampa lingering, footing issues favor a defensive slugfest tonight. Don’t be afraid to bet on the underdog in this prime time matchup between two very familiar teams tonight.

How does Atlanta win this game? The Falcons' defense stifles a depleted Bucs offense, Cousins does enough to move the chains, and Atlanta's ATS prowess as underdogs shines when the lights are bright on Thursday Night Football. Take the points— the Falcons cover the +5.5 spread in a nail-biter.