For the first time in months, we don’t have a massive college football slate to sweat out today. Luckily, the college basketball season is starting to heat up. There are two great games involving ranked teams on Saturday, and I’ve got a play in both of them. Let’s dive right in…

In Saturday's clash at the Lenovo Center, NC State (7-3) hosts Kansas (7-3) as a -2.5 favorite, and the Wolfpack are poised to cover with home-court dominance and matchup edges. Raleigh's raucous environment has fueled NC State's 24-1 non-conference home record over the last 25 games, providing a massive boost against a Jayhawks squad that's dropped three of its last four night games. Desperation plays a key role—NC State needs this signature win for its NCAA resume after an uneven Maui Invitational (1-2, losses to Seton Hall, Texas, Auburn), allowing over 1.15 points per possession in Power Five tilts but rebounding with a dominant defensive showing against Liberty.

Stylistically, NC State's fast-paced attack (under coach Will Wade) clashes favorably with Kansas's plodding tempo, the Jayhawks ranking among the slowest in FBS. The Wolfpack's length and versatility—led by Paul McNeil, Darrion Williams, Matt Able, Quadir Copeland, and Ven-Allen Lubin—create mismatch nightmares, exploiting Kansas's regression risks. Opponents have shot a frigid 24.9% from three against KU, but metrics suggest that's unsustainable (expected 8.8% on threes, 7.5% midrange), especially versus NC State's perimeter threats in a compact defense that ranks 359th in 3-point rate allowed. Kansas's elite defense (anchored by Flory Bidunga and Melvin Council) has held up against top foes like North Carolina, Duke, and UConn, but cold shooters like Rosario, Council, and Tiller could falter here.

While Kansas is 3-1 ATS lately, NC State's home talent and chemistry improvements make this a great wager at -2.5 (-110). Historical meetings were close (KU won 75-60 last year as -14.5 fave, 80-74 in Raleigh in 2022 as dogs), but the venue flip and NC State's fouling vulnerabilities are offset by their ability to dictate pace. Project a 78-73 Wolfpack win, covering easily.

Shifting to Birmingham's neutral-site showdown, Alabama (7-2) grabs the upset moneyline at (+100) over unbeaten Arizona (8-0), leveraging offensive firepower and exploitable mismatches. Though Arizona enters as -1.5 chalk, the pro-Bama crowd in Alabama's backyard neutralizes the site, potentially swinging the line toward three points in Tide favor. Nate Oats' squad boasts the game's top unit: an elite offense thriving on "math-ball" profiles with attacks + kicks (Arizona allows 0.93 PPP) and big cuts/rolls (1.02 PPP allowed), foundational weaknesses in the Wildcats' D.

Key edges emerge in transition and the glass—Alabama excels here, controlling possessions by ball security and floor spacing in an 80s-pace affair with massive three-point volume. Both squads have porous transition defenses, but Bama's perimeter shot-making (high 3PT rate) punishes Arizona's 113th-ranked opponent 3PT% (31.4% allowed). Star Labaron Philon (21.4 PPG, 5.4 APG, 1.4 SPG) spearheads, with Aden Holloway facilitating cuts/rolls and Jaden Bradley/Latrell Wrightsell adding transition/depth scoring. Arizona's high two-point rate (No. 2 nationally) meets Alabama's 92nd-ranked opponent 2PT% (48.5% allowed), but the Tide's multiple paths to points outweigh Arizona's interior focus.

Alabama's 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games, heating up right before the holidays. Their fast pace will be too much for Arizona to handle, as the Wildcats struggle to keep up with the Tide. Bama's stylistic advantages in a shootout seals a 90-85 outright win.