In Monday's College Football Playoff National Championship, there is one player in particular that I am looking to fade. Indiana's running back Kaelon Black has been a reliable force this season, rushing for 961 yards and 10 touchdowns while sharing carries in a deep backfield. He's scored in big playoff games, including two against Oregon in the Peach Bowl and one versus Alabama in the Rose Bowl. However, multiple factors point to Black finishing touchdown-less against a Miami defense built to neutralize runners like him. 

Miami's greatest strength is its dominance in the trenches. The Hurricanes' defensive line—anchored by edge rushers Rueben Bain Jr., Ahmad Moten Sr. and Akheeem Mesidor, plus massive interior tackles—averages over 300 pounds and ranks top-10 nationally in run defense and stuff rate. They've repeatedly shut down physical ground attacks in the playoffs, holding opponents under 100 rushing yards in key wins. Black, at 5-10 and 211 pounds, thrives on agility and balance, but Miami's size and gap discipline will clog lanes, forcing him into negative plays or minimal gains. Expect limited yards per carry—closer to his lower outputs against stout fronts—and no easy paths to the end zone.

Indiana's committee approach further dilutes Black's scoring chances. The Hoosiers boast a formidable 1-2 punch with Roman Hemby (over 1,000 rushing yards and multiple TDs) and emerging options like Khobie Martin. In goal-line situations, coach Curt Cignetti often rotates based on hot hands or matchups, and Hemby has vultured several short-yardage scores this year. If Indiana reaches the red zone, touchdowns could go to Hemby, quarterback Fernando Mendoza on sneaks, or receivers like Elijah Sarratt via play-action. Black's opportunities for goal-line carries will be limited.

Game script plays a huge role too. Miami, playing essentially at home in a raucous environment, is poised to start strong behind Carson Beck and a surging rush attack led by Mark Fletcher Jr. The Hurricanes' balanced offense should control the clock, keeping Indiana's possessions down and forcing more passing from Mendoza—especially if Miami builds an early lead or keeps it close. Indiana's explosive passing game opens up big plays to wideouts, reducing reliance on the ground game inside the 20.

Miami's red zone defense has been stingy against top competition, forcing field goals or turnovers in critical spots. They've excelled at goal-line stands, with athletic linebackers and a ball-hawking secondary disrupting drives. Black has been productive, but against elite physical defenses, his touchdown production dips when volume is shared.

Black staying out of the end zone is the play for Monday night’s National Championship game. If anyone is scoring, it’s going to be Roman Hemby, who moved from a normal PrizePicks TD square to a goblin TD square.  Miami's trench superiority, Indiana's shared backfield, unfavorable script, and red zone prowess all converge to keep No. 8 scoreless in the scoring column. Fade the anytime TD square on PrizePicks—he isn’t finding paydirt on Monday night.