The NFL Wildcard Weekend was extremely square. The Panthers were a public dog and they almost won outright against the Rams, covering with ease. The Bears were the biggest public dog of the weekend, and they won outright after an incredible second half. Josh Allen and the Bills covered the spread and won on the road in Jacksonville and everyone’s favorite play, the Patriots on the spread, hit with ease. Let’s hope the Divisional Round plays out better for the sharps…

No shot Josh Allen wins his second playoff game in a row, right? Especially in Denver against the #1 seed with debatably the best defense in the NFL. Well, if that was the case, then why did the Bills open up as the betting favorite? The Broncos have since been steamed up to a -1.5 favorite, but shouldn’t the #1 seed be the betting favorite in the first place? Take a look at the Bills wide receiver room and tell me how they are going to move the rock on paper in this one against Pat Surtain and the Broncos’ defense. Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks and Keon Coleman are the only three healthy receivers on the depth chart. 

None of that matters. All that matters is who is under center in this game. This is Josh Allen’s year. The advantage Buffalo has over Denver at the quarterback position is extremely significant. Bo Nix and this offense had a great year, but do you trust him coming off a week of rest (rust) against this veteran Bills unit in his first career playoff game? The Broncos won so many one score games this season, and had luck on their side in the majority of them. 

Fade the #1 seed in the AFC, and back Josh Allen and the Bills on Saturday afternoon. If Josh Allen can’t get it done this year without Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes in the postseason, he might never win a Super Bowl. 

I have yet to see anyone with a Seahawks spread ticket. Sharps and the squares seem to both be on the 49ers, and I don’t blame them. To be honest, I like San Fran as well, but it’s starting to feel too easy. The play in this game is the under, leaning on the best defense in the league (Seattle) and one of the best defensive coordinators in the league (Robert Saleh). It’s impressive how the 49ers defense has hung in there this season with all the injuries they’ve dealt with, and who’s to say they can’t perform at a high level once again versus Sam Darnold? 

If the 49ers can limit Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s impact, and hold him to under 100 yards, the under in this game is hitting. We can count on the Seahawks defense to do job; they are the best unit in the NFL. Brock Purdy has been great when healthy, but he will have his hands full against this Seattle defensive unit. These teams also just played to end the regular season, and it was a tight, low scoring affair. I’m expecting the same type of game script for the rematch this weekend. 

After seeing what Brock Purdy did to the Eagles last week, who wants to fade their offense right now? Not many people, hence why I haven’t seen a single Seahawks -7.5 ticket. Instead of taking a side, ride with the under. The Seahawks defense is elite, and the 49ers’ secondary has improved greatly down the stretch. The total has dropped from 45.5 to 45; grab it before it gets any lower.

One of my favorite plays of the weekend is the Texans on the spread. I have been so impressed by this Houston defense. They carried this team in the Wildcard round, and they are going to do the same against Drake Maye and the Patriots on Sunday. What a year it’s been for Mike Vrabel, Drake Maye and New England. They have quickly become everyone’s favorite pick to win the Super Bowl, but I’m just not seeing it. Drake Maye didn’t have to do much against the Chargers last week. Herbert didn’t really put up a fight. Expect the Texans to be a much tougher matchup for Drake Maye and the Patriots this weekend. 

I think the Texans are a great sleeper pick to win the Super Bowl this year. For that to happen, they obviously have to get through New England on the road this weekend. Seeing them open up +3 makes the Texans the sharpest side of the NFL Divisional Round. You’re telling me this game would be a pick ‘em on a neutral field? That’s a great sign for CJ Stroud and the Texans. If Woody Marks can perform anything like he did against the Steelers, this team will have a chance to shock the world. Nico Collins might be banged up, but receivers like Christian Kirk have stepped up. Stroud has enough weapons to move the rock this weekend.

It’s been a while since the Patriots dropped an absolute stinker of a performance. I see it coming this weekend, against the hottest defense in the league. Back Houston on Sunday afternoon. Snag the points, we’ll take a field goal here, but I don’t hate a sprinkle on the moneyline if you’re looking for a plus-money play.

The NFL saved the best game for last in the Divisional Round. They knew exactly what they were doing when they scheduled this game for Sunday night. I’m tired of fading the Bears, and the Rams haven’t looked like themselves down the stretch. I’ll stay off a side in this one, and target the total…

This Bears team reminds me of the Commanders last season. Stud young QB, a veteran defense stepping up when they need it most, and a decent running back room by committee. They are like a cockroach; they just don’t ever seem to die. The Bears are never out of any game, and they have been comeback kids this entire season. Whether they win this game outright as underdogs, or lose to Matthew Stafford and the Rams, I see way more instances of this game going over the total than under. 

The Rams squeaked by the Panthers last week, and did not look impressive at all. They did show that they can pretty much score at will, and when they need points, they can manufacture a drive. Puka Nacua is one of, if not the best wide receiver in football, and it’s been a while since we’ve seen Davante Adams dominate a football game. This could be the weekend he returns to the spotlight. All in all, this Rams’ offense is too much for the Bears to handle. They will put up 30+ points in this one, and I think the Bears can keep up as well. 

The total in this game opened up at a whopping 51.5. That is an insanely high total for a playoff game. It is now down to 48.5, an absolute smash spot for the over in my opinion. This game is going to be another instant classic, and Caleb Williams has proven that he can come back and make any game competitive against any opponent. This game is going to be an absolute shootout, and it might be the only game that goes over the total this weekend. Fade both defenses, and bet on an explosive offensive performance from both the Rams and Bears on Sunday night.