If you’ve been fading this Indiana team like me all season, you’re probably nearly out of units at this point. As much of an ACC guy as I am, I don’t know if I can do it anymore. Miami is a great Cinderella story, but does Carson Beck have enough magic left for another crazy CFP upset? When it comes to a side in this game, I am lost. Luckily, I have a play on this total that is hitting…

Let’s take a look at what happened in the CFP semifinals. Indiana destroyed Oregon in a 56-22 rout, soaring over the 50.5 total. Miami ended the game on a Carson Beck legacy drive, outscoring Ole Miss 31-27 and cashing the over with a 52.5 total. Both games had plenty of points, cashing the overs with ease. 

There are two popular narratives for the National Championship. Miami is playing on their home field at the Hard Rock in Miami. Surely Carson Beck lights up the scoreboard once again in front of his home crowd, right? The Hurricanes have an edge here on paper, and should come out with less nerves than Indiana, a team with all the pressure in the world to win this game as -7.5 favorites. On the other side, Fernando Mendoza is returning to his hometown to play a team that didn’t recruit him out of high school or in the transfer portal this offseason. He should have a chip on his shoulder against the Hurricanes in a very familiar environment. On paper, this game has plenty of narratives that back a shootout-type of gamescript.

Unfortunately, betting on narratives like this typically never work out. It’s usually not that easy; if it was, Las Vegas wouldn’t be as shiny as it is. If both teams were primed for offensive explosions after we just saw two overs in the semifinals, then why is the total in this game down to 48.5? If there are going to be plenty of points, why are there a bunch of green-chart TD scorer PrizePicks squares up on the board? The over in this game simply feels and looks too easy, especially after the two semifinal games soaring over the total. 

There’s a reason why this total is in the 40’s compared to the last two CFP games. Typically we see some nerves in National Championships; afterall, they are just kids. Nerves are expected early on. Defenses typically dominate these games early on, and that’s exactly what I’m expecting in this game. Miami’s defensive line is dominant, and should hold their own against the Hoosiers on Monday. Expect plenty of sacks from future NFL players like Akheem Mesidor, Reuben Bain Jr., and Ahmad Moten. Indiana’s defense should shine as well, with some studs in the secondary like D’Angelo Ponds and Louis Moore standing out. Let’s just hope we don’t see a pick six on the first play of the game like we did in Indiana vs Oregon…

This Indiana defense has been underappreciated and underrated all season. They’ve allowed the second least amount of points this season. Both teams have stud quarterbacks, but they also have three running backs that don’t get the respect they deserve. Mark Fletcher, Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby should get fed early and often, leading to a constant running clock. Barring any Derrick Henry-style 90 yard touchdown runs, a heavy run script favors the under. You can expect more conservative playcalling in a Championship game as well. Less deep shots to limit the potential mistakes, at least early on. 

The over in this game looks just as easy as laying the points with Indiana. They will both be public come gametime, and they aren’t both hitting. I’m tired of fading Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers, so instead I will be fading both offenses. Take the under in this game; it will be closer and lower scoring than the public expects.