Overall this season, the NFL has once again been relatively square on sides and totals, much like last year. College football has actually been more sharp this season, but the sharps are finally starting to get some winners through the hoop in the NFL these past couple of weeks. Here are my three favorite sharp NFL plays for NFL Sunday Week 14…

In a pivotal AFC South clash, the Indianapolis Colts emerge as the sharpest under-the-radar favorite (-130) on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars (+110). At 8-4, Indy enters as slim -1.5 road chalk after dropping two straight—narrow 20-16 heartbreaker to Houston and a prior Chiefs loss—snapping a hot streak but fueling a motivated response. This spot screams value: the Colts are 6-2 as ML favorites this year, thriving in divisional tilts where they've outscored foes by 10+ per game on average.

Contrast that with Jacksonville, the NFL's most fraudulent 8-4 squad. Their three-game win streak masks a house of cards: a blowout win against the measly Titans, a nailbiter against the Cardinals, and a win against an injured Chargers squad. The Jags' offense ranks 20th in EPA/play, Trevor Lawrence's inconsistencies persist (59% completion in recent wins), and they've lost 10 straight home games to the Colts dating back to 2014—a Duval County curse Indy is primed to extend.

Jonathan Taylor's dominance seals it. In the January 5, 2025, thriller (Colts' 27-24 OT win at home), he erupted for 172 yards and 2 TDs on 22 carries, gashing Jax's front for 7.8 YPC. Now NFL-leading in rush yards (1,282) and TDs (15), Taylor faces a Jags D that's typically elite against the run (82.4 YPG allowed) but vulnerable to power backs—Indy averages 5.7 YPC against them historically. With QB Daniel Jones' mobility hampered but the run game clicking (28.5 rush attempts/game lately), expect Taylor to control the clock. He’s primed for another legacy performance against a Jacksonville team he historically dominates.

Indy's top-10 scoring D (21.7 PPG allowed) feasts on Jax's turnover-prone attack (12 giveaways in last 5). Road favorites after losses? Colts are 4-1 SU in such spots. Fade the Jags’ hype—Indy grinds out a 24-20 victory on Sunday, cashing the ML outright in the sharpest spot of the weekend.

The Atlanta Falcons (+6.5, O/U 44.5) at home versus the surging Seattle Seahawks scream value for the underdog. Seattle's scorching 4-1 run in their last five—capped by a gritty 26-0 shutout of Minnesota—has inflated their 9-3 line, but it's prime time to sell high. The Hawks boast a league-best 9-3 ATS mark, yet they've failed to cover in each of their last six December road games as favorites against NFC foes, per betting trends. They typically tend to come back down to Earth around this time of year. Road warriors? Sure, but they've dropped three of four December tilts versus NFC South teams, and Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium has been a house of horrors for visitors (Falcons 3-4 as dogs this year).

Enter Bijan Robinson, primed for a breakout after middling recent outings (under 70 rush yards in 4 of his last 7 games). The sixth-ranked rusher (995 yards, 5 TDs on the season) exploded for 120+ total yards in Atlanta's last loss to the Jets, clearing 100 in consecutive games despite a 27-24 heartbreaker. Facing Seattle's stout run D (3rd in rush yards allowed at 88.8 YPG), Bijan's elusiveness and Atlanta's uptick to 28 rush attempts/game lately could grind clocks and limit possessions. Expect him to be a factor in the receiving game as well, as Kirk utilizes him in the short passing game against the blitz.

Kirk Cousins, settling in after two starts post-Michael Penix's ACL tear, looks sharper every week: 13th in EPA/play (-0.03), 14th in PPG (24) over his last pair, with TDs to Kyle Pitts (82 yards vs. Jets) and David Sills. Nobody’s talking about it, but Kirk Cousins and the Falcons offense looked solid last week against a decent Jets defense… don’t be surprised if they catch the Seahawks sleeping at home on Sunday.

Atlanta is 5-1 ATS as underdogs this season, and while Seattle's +11 turnover edge is impressive, the Falcons defense is forcing 1.5/game lately; don’t be surprised if Sam Darnold is seeing ghosts in Atlanta on Sunday.  Everyone is expecting a blowout in this one, but the spread has moved down from +7.5 to +6.5, making the Falcons one of the sharper underdogs of the NFL Week 14. The desperate 4-8 Falcons keep it within a field goal in a sleepy letdown spot for Seattle.

It's a contrarian bettor's dream: hammer the Green Bay Packers (-6.5) to cover against the scorching-hot Chicago Bears, the NFL's streakiest squad currently on a five-game tear. At 9-3, Chicago's hype train has derailed lesser foes, but regression looms large in this frozen Lambeau showdown. The Bears are 5-2 on the road SU, yet those wins mask razor-thin margins—averaging just 7.2 points of victory—and a 25th-ranked D surrendering 25.6 PPG. Their 8-4 ATS mark? It’s inflated by 4th-quarter comebacks in four of six road covers, but Green Bay's 11-1 SU vs. Chicago under LaFleur screams dominance.

Fueling the fire: Bears HC Ben Johnson's introductory jab, smirking, "I kinda enjoyed beating Matt LaFleur twice a year" from his Lions days. LaFleur brushed it off publicly—"I don't know Ben Johnson"—but even his staff has admitted this pissed him off, with OC Adam Stenavich admitting it "hits personal." Revenge burns hotter after Chicago's 24-22 Week 18 upset on Jan. 5, 2025, a punt-return dagger that snapped GB's streak. Now, with Jordan Love's 2,794 yards and 19 TDs (10th/7th in NFL), the Pack's top-10 scoring D (20.8 PPG allowed) feasts on Caleb Williams' inconsistencies (12 INTs). Micah Parsons' 12.5 sacks? A nightmare for Chicago's O-line, ranked 28th in pressure rate allowed. Expect Parsons to thrive in this spot, coming up big for the Packers at home on Sunday. 

Packers are 16-4 SU in last 20 home games as 6+ favorites, covering 12 of their last 20 games in similar spots. After Ben Johnson’s remarks, expect the Packers to keep their foot on the gas and win this one in a blowout for Matt LaFleur. Fade the Bears’ hot streak; Lambeau buries the Bears on Sunday.