In a pivotal AFC North clash on Thursday Night Football, the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) roll into Paycor Stadium to face the struggling Cincinnati Bengals (2-4), with Aaron Rodgers under center looking to exploit mismatches in the passing game. Enter Kenneth Gainwell, the Steelers' dynamic change-of-pace running back who signed a one-year deal in March 2025 after four seasons with the Eagles. As Jaylen Warren's primary backup, Gainwell has carved out a niche as a receiving threat, amassing 65 receiving yards on the season through five games—good for an average of 13 yards per outing, but his usage spikes in favorable scripts. Tonight's prop sits at a modest 18.5 receiving yards (over -115 at most books), a line that's begging to be smashed given Cincinnati's porous defense against pass-catching backs, Gainwell's expanding role, and a game plan that leans on quick dumps to combat the Bengals' aggressive blitzes. Sharp money has already nudged this up from an opener of 16.5, but the over remains a steal—here's why it cashes comfortably.

First, the Bengals' defense is a sieve against running backs in the passing game, ranking dead last in fantasy points allowed to the position (26.0 per game) and hemorrhaging an average of 45.8 receiving yards per contest to opposing RBs through six weeks. Their linebacker corps, led by Germaine Pratt and Logan Wilson, has struggled mightily in coverage, allowing a league-high 8.2 yards per target to backs while posting a dismal 68.4% completion rate against them. Just look at recent torchings: In Week 6, Packers RBs racked up 53 receiving yards against Cincy; the week prior, Detroit's duo combined for 39. With Joe Flacco filling in for the injured Joe Burrow, the Bengals' offense ranks bottom-five in time of possession (27:18 per game), forcing their defense onto the field for extended stretches—perfect for Rodgers to pepper Gainwell on checkdowns when blitzes come (Cincy blitzes at a 32% clip, fourth-highest). Models project Pittsburgh to control the clock with 31+ minutes of possession, opening ample opportunities for Gainwell in screen and flat routes.

Second, Gainwell's skill set aligns perfectly with this matchup. The 26-year-old Memphis product has always been a receiving specialist, hauling in 22 targets this season (fourth among backup RBs) for those 65 yards, including a season-high 24-yard grab in Week 4 against the Browns. He's averaged 4.4 targets per game since joining Pittsburgh, stepping up amid Jaylen Warren's lingering knee issues that limited him to 65% snaps last week. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has dialed up more RB screens in 2025 (up 15% from last year), and Rodgers—averaging 232 passing yards per game—loves reliable outlets like Gainwell, who boasts a 78% catch rate and 4.2 yards after catch per reception. In divisional games, Gainwell's receiving yards jump to 17.5 per contest, and with the Steelers favored by 5.5 points, expect a positive script where he sees 10-15 snaps in passing situations, easily eclipsing 18.5 on 3-4 grabs.

Third, TNF dynamics favor the over here. Short-week games often see elevated passing volume due to fatigued lines, and this rivalry has trended toward chunk plays— the last three Steelers-Bengals meetings averaged 42 pass attempts from the road team. Cincinnati's secondary, banged up with Geno Stone questionable (ankle), will force more underneath throws, where Gainwell thrives. Factor in the Bengals' home-field woes (allowing 28.3 points per game at Paycor) and Pittsburgh's top-10 third-down conversion rate (44%), and drives extend, boosting Gainwell's peripheral involvement.

Cincinnati's RB-friendly leaks, Gainwell's proven hands, and a Steelers attack poised to exploit the Bengals’ sketchy defense are all factors that spell 25+ yards for the vet. Hammer the over before it climbs—it's a TNF gem in a game that could quietly deliver for prop hunters.