On Sunday Night Football, with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Houston Texans as 3.5-point favorites in a pivotal AFC showdown, contrarian bettors should salivate over fading the Kareem Hunt rushing yards prop at 36.5 (-116 to the under). It's a head-scratcher: Hunt's line sits suspiciously low despite the Chiefs' backfield leaning on the run in a home tilt where Andy Reid's crew averages 120 rushing yards per game (14th in NFL). But if you dig a little deeper, this spot screams regression for the veteran Chiefs’ running back.

Let’ start with the brutal Houston defense, the league's stingiest against the rush. Ranked fourth in rushing yards allowed (91.7 per game), the Texans have suffocated ball carriers all season; we shouldn’t expect anything different with Kareem Hunt at this point of the season. The Chiefs have leaned heavily on their veteran back with Pacheco out in recent weeks, but after some heavy mileage carrying the workload, don’t expect the 30 year old’s legs to feel fresh at this point of the season.

The Texans’ front seven—anchored by Will Anderson Jr.'s league-leading 12.5 sacks and Danielle Hunter's 9.0—ranks top-five in EPA/rush (-0.12) and stuff rate (28.4%), per SumerSports metrics. Houston's overall D is No. 1, surrendering a measly 265.7 total yards per game, forcing opponents into predictable pass-heavy scripts. Against a Chiefs offense that's 21st in rush success rate (38.2%), expect Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce to feast on short throws from Patrick Mahomes (4th in passing yards), limiting Hunt's reps to glorified change-of-pace duties.

Then there's the Isiah Pacheco factor. Fresh off a knee tweak that sidelined him for three games through Week 12, the young bruiser returned with a vengeance in Week 13's Thanksgiving loss to Dallas, ripping off 16 yards on three carries while snagging two catches for 17 more—easing back but signaling full takeover mode in the near future. Now fully practicing, Pacheco's 345 yards on 81 carries (4.3 YPC) position him for potentially leading the Chiefs backfield in carries, per Reid's post-practice comments on "easing him in but letting him lead." Hunt, the 30-year-old vet, has thrived as a TD vulture (seven scores, all inside the 5-yard line) and we can’t forget about Samaje Perine lurking as the third-down specialist. I’m expecting Hunt  to end up with 8-10 carries max—barely enough for 30 yards against Houston's wall of a defensive line.

Hunt's recent form? A dream for contrarian bettors. Over his last five outings—vs the Cowboys (58 yards on 14 carries), vs the Colts (104 on 30 carries), vs the Broncos (59 on 13), vs the Bills (49 on 11), and vs the Commanders (40 on 9)—he's cleared 36.5 in all of his last five games. So why is his rushing yards prop so low this weekend? Well, it’s the matchup combined with the recent heavy workload, along with Pacheco getting back to full strength with more potential carries in this game on SNF.  This is the perfect “sell-high” spot for Kareem Hunt with all those factors impacting his performance and workload for Sunday Night Football.

Let’s talk about the game flow: I wouldn't be surprised if the Texans are up in this game early on, or even in the second half. That would force the Chiefs into a more pass-heavy gamescript, which I’m sure Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes wouldn’t necessarily mind. The Chiefs are just 3-5 ATS as 3.5-point home favorites in recent spots, often winning ugly without pounding the rock. Fade the recent success for Hunt and bet on him to go under his rushing prop on SNF—this vet's legs stall in prime time when the public least expects it.