In today's college football slate, two underdog plays stand out as prime opportunities to cash in: UAB +23.5 against Memphis and Penn State +3 versus Iowa. Both bets hinge on a time-tested betting angle—the "coach fired system play"—which has proven extremely profitable over the years. This system capitalizes on teams rallying after mid-season coaching changes, often delivering motivated performances and covering spreads at a clip north of 60% since 2010, according to historical data from betting databases like Covers and Action Network. When a program axes its head coach, players frequently respond with renewed energy, simplified schemes, and a "us-against-the-world" mentality, leading to unexpected covers or outright upsets. Today, both UAB and Penn State fit this mold perfectly, having fired their coaches amid disappointing campaigns, setting the stage for bounce-back efforts.

Starting with UAB +23.5 vs. Memphis, this is a classic contrarian spot that's begging for sharp money. Memphis enters as a ranked powerhouse, sitting at No. 15 in the AP Poll with an undefeated 6-0 record against the spread (ATS) this season. They've been steamrolling AAC opponents, averaging 42 points per game while holding foes to under 20. Public bettors are piling on the Tigers, with over 70% of tickets on Memphis per VegasInsider reports, inflating the line to a bloated 23.5 points. But here's where the value lies: UAB just fired head coach Trent Dilfer after a 1-5 start marred by defensive lapses and quarterback inconsistencies. Interim coach Bryan Vincent, a longtime assistant, steps in with nothing to lose, likely emphasizing fundamentals and ball control to keep games close. Historically, the coach-fired bump is amplified in conference matchups like this, where underdogs cover at 68% over the last decade. UAB's offense, led by sophomore QB Ryder Burton making his first start, has shown flashes (averaging 28 points in losses), and their defense ranks in the top half of the AAC against the run—Memphis' bread and butter. Expect a gritty, low-scoring affair where UAB hangs around, covering easily in a 31-14 type game. Going against the grain on a hot, ranked team like Memphis is textbook contrarian betting, and with the system play in effect, this is a lock to hit.

Shifting to Penn State +3 vs. Iowa, this line screams sharp side despite the Nittany Lions' recent turmoil. Penn State fired longtime coach James Franklin last week after a shocking 2-4 Big Ten start, including outright losses as favorites to Oregon (a 35-28 heartbreaker), UCLA (24-21 on a last-second field goal), and Northwestern (an embarrassing 17-14 dud at home). The fanbase is in revolt, and casual bettors are fading PSU hard—over 65% of the money is on Iowa per BetMGM trends—viewing them as a broken team with QB Drew Allar now hurt and a defense allowing 28+ points lately. But that's exactly why this is the sharp play.

The coach-fired system shines brightest in Power Five scenarios, where talent disparities aren't as stark, and interim leadership (likely OC Mike Yurcich) refocuses on basics. Penn State's roster is still loaded with blue-chip recruits, ranking top-20 in total yards and boasting a ferocious front seven that can stifle Iowa's run-heavy attack (Hawkeyes average just 3.8 yards per carry). Iowa, at 4-2, is solid but unspectacular, with QB Mark Gronowski prone to turnovers (three INTs this year) and an offense scoring under 25 points per game. Expect Penn State's players to rally for pride in Happy Valley, controlling the trenches and grinding out a 20-17 win or close cover. Nobody wants to touch PSU right now, but that's the beauty of contrarian wagering—buying low on a talented squad in system mode.

In summary, these picks combine the profitable coach-fired angle with undervalued lines against public darlings. Risk 1 unit each for a potential +2.6 units return at standard -110 juice. Fade the herd, trust the system, and watch these dogs bark today.