Both the Eagles and the Bills have had up and down seasons thus far, but don’t look now… they are starting to cook. The Eagles have won two in a row and the Bills have won four games in a row. It’s clear both teams are playing their best football right now. When they face-off on Sunday afternoon, all eyes will be on Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. 

I am not sure who wins this game, as both teams are scorching hot at this point of the season. I do have a play in this game that I absolutely LOVE; it’s not a side, but it’s a winner. Let’s dive right into my favorite play of the afternoon slate…

The Eagles-Bills under 44 is a contrarian bettor's dream, fading public perception after Philadelphia's explosive 29-18 rout of Washington last week—their highest output in five games amid a 10-5 campaign where they've averaged just 23.3 points. That performance snapped a funk of underwhelming efforts, including a 21-17 loss to Denver and a 34-17 defeat at the Giants, but it masks an offense that's hit the under in six of their last seven outings. Meanwhile, Buffalo's attack, fueling three straight overs in their 11-4 tear—including a 23-20 squeaker last week—has propelled totals northward, but this matchup screams regression. Josh Allen's crew averages 28.9 points, yet they've leaned on heroics against softer defenses; facing Philly's top-tier pass rush and secondary (allowing just 18.5 points lately) could stall drives.

This game carries an intense playoff vibe, with the Bills chasing the AFC's No. 1 seed and Eagles jockeying for NFC supremacy—scenarios that historically trend under as teams tighten up, prioritize field position, and lean on ground games. Late-December in Buffalo amplifies that, with forecasts calling for snow, wind, and sub-freezing temps at Highmark Stadium, hampering passing attacks and favoring clock-chewing runs. Saquon Barkley and James Cook thrive in such slop, but expect conservative play-calling from coaches Nick Sirianni and Sean McDermott, both known for defensive masterclasses in big spots. Philly's defense ranks elite against the pass, potentially neutralizing Allen's deep shots, while Buffalo's run-stopping unit could bottle Barkley, forcing Jalen Hurts into checkdowns.

Sharp money loves this under, as the total opened at 46.5 but plummeted to 44 amid reverse line movement—despite heavy public action on the over. That's classic pro vs. Joe: casuals chase recency bias from Buffalo's overs and Philly's outlier explosion, but wiseguys pounce on the drop, signaling value in a low-scoring grind. Eagles are 6-3 ATS lately but thrive in unders on the road (5-2), while Bills' home games average 42 points when weather bites. Injury notes add caution: Philly's secondary is banged up but resilient, and Buffalo's O-line issues could expose Allen to sacks. Fade the hype, ride the under—it's the best play in the afternoon slate.