It’s been an incredible season for Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. If the future Hall of Famer can finish the season strong, he is in line for the first MVP trophy of his long career. The man standing in his way tonight? That would be Kirk Cousins…

The Atlanta Falcons are sitting at 6-9 but are riding a two-game win streak where they’ve looked pretty solid. While the Rams are NFC contenders fighting for playoff seeding after a heartbreaking 38-37 overtime loss to the Seahawks, several factors tilt the scales toward Atlanta keeping this game within a touchdown. From Kirk Cousins' resurgence to sharp betting trends, Bijan Robinson's dominance, and key Rams absences, the Falcons have the tools to keep this game close against Matthew Stafford and company.

Let’s start with Captain Kirk, who has looked rejuvenated in Atlanta's recent victories. In the 26-19 win over the Cardinals on December 21st, he completed 21 of 35 passes for 197 yards, managing the game efficiently while leaning on the run game to control the clock. Against the Buccaneers on December 12, Cousins orchestrated a masterful fourth-quarter comeback, showcasing poise under pressure with key throws that sealed the win. These performances mark a stark improvement from earlier inconsistencies, with Cousins posting a 62.2% completion rate over his last eight starts, tallying 1,415 yards, eight touchdowns, and just four interceptions. Facing a Rams defense that's surrendered 36 points per game over the last two outings, Cousins can exploit mismatches in zone coverage, especially with play-action setups.

Sharp reverse line movement further signals that the Falcons are the play on MNF. The spread opened at Atlanta +8 but tightened to +7, indicating that the sharps are backing the home underdog despite public money favoring the Rams. The Falcons are also 6-2 ATS as underdogs this season, and are 4-2 ATS as underdogs at home. The Falcons have covered in four of their last six games, while the Rams, have shown that they’re human and beatable of late (for the first time this season). 

A massive blow to Los Angeles is Davante Adams' absence. The star wideout, who joined the Rams in a blockbuster 2025 offseason trade, is doubtful with a lingering hamstring injury that sidelined him from practice all week. Adams' red-zone prowess and route-running have been key to Stafford's MVP-caliber campaign, but without him, the Rams' passing attack leans heavier on Puka Nacua, who faces an Atlanta secondary that's improved in limiting explosive plays. Stafford threw for 457 yards last week but needed overtime heroics; expect regression against a Falcons defense ranking top-10 in pass rush blitz rate.

Enter Bijan Robinson, Atlanta's X-factor. The dynamic running back is on a tear, amassing 1,250 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) and 776 receiving yards, closing in on the Falcons' single-season scrimmage yards record with just 151 needed. In the Cardinals win, he exploded for chunks on outside runs and checkdowns, totaling over 150 all-purpose yards. Robinson averages 83.3 rushing yards per game and faces a Rams run defense that's vulnerable horizontally, allowing 4.5 yards per carry lately. His versatility keeps drives alive, reducing Stafford's possessions and enabling Atlanta to dictate tempo.

Other intangibles favor the Falcons in this spot. Home-field advantage in a dome where they've gone 2-4 but covered often, plus some unique motivation. The Rams own Atlanta's 2026 first-round pick from a prior trade, giving the Falcons extra incentive to spoil Los Angeles’ seeding and worsen that draft slot. The total at 49.5 is hinting at a high-scoring affair but one where a backdoor cover is more than possible. Kirk Cousins used to stink in primetime, but he’s been solid the last couple of years when the lights are brightest. The Rams may win outright, but expect Cousins, Robinson, and a gritty effort to keep it within a touchdown. Fade the public, and take the Falcons on the spread; I’ll meet you at the cash counter.