I am not a fan of Diego Pavia. He is too cocky and arrogant for my liking, but the kid can play, I’ll give him that. Will he be the next great NFL QB? Probably not, he’s 5’9” and might have a worse rep than Shedeur Sanders at this point. Will he dominate in the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa, Florida on New Years Eve? Let’s break it down…

Not only do I want to fade Diego Pavia, but I want to fade Mark Gronowski as well after a great second half of the season. This is the ultimate contrarian angle in the first game of the day. Iowa is coming off a dominant 40-16 rout of Nebraska on November 28, where they exploded for 23 unanswered points in the second half. That performance likely inflates expectations for their offense, which averaged closer to 28 points per game overall in 2025—middling at 58th nationally. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt enters with an 8-4 over/under record this season, including four straight overs to close out the year. Their high-octane attack, led by quarterback Diego Pavia, averaged 38.3 points and 468.5 total yards per game (15th nationally), fueling public bets on a shootout. But bowl games often defy regular-season momentum, especially in the opening half, where teams feel each other out amid distractions and unfamiliar schemes. These teams couldn’t be less familiar with each other, and it’ll show early on.

Coaching adjustments will play a key role, but expect the offenses to shine later. Vanderbilt's Clark Lea and Iowa's Kirk Ferentz are defensive-minded tacticians—Lea a former Notre Dame coordinator, Ferentz a 27-year Iowa staple known for grind-it-out wins. If offenses do heat up, it'll likely be post-halftime, after in-game tweaks expose weaknesses. Iowa's defense, ranked sixth nationally allowing just 15.2 points and 270.6 yards per game, thrives on forcing three-and-outs early. Vanderbilt's explosive plays could emerge, but not before Lea's unit settles in. First halves in similar matchups often stay low-scoring as teams figure each other out, rather than shine offensively.

I could see Diego Pavia potentially getting out to a slow start before heating up down the stretch in this one. The dual-threat QB, who threw for over 3,100 yards and rushed for 800+ in 2025, was probably out late last night enjoying the Bowl season in Tampa. Facing Iowa's vaunted defense—21 sacks and only 18 touchdowns allowed all season—Pavia might look hungover early, struggling with precision against a unit that ranks top-10 in pass efficiency defense. His gunslinger style could lead to turnovers or stalled drives before he shakes off the cobwebs.

Other factors bolster the under: Bowl opt-outs and motivation dips often lead to conservative play-calling in the first half. Iowa's offense, while improved, relies on a run-heavy approach (32 attempts per game average) that eats clock but rarely erupts early. Vanderbilt, despite their 10-2 record, faced softer SEC defenses late; Iowa's Big Ten-tested front seven (4.52 yards per play allowed, seventh nationally) should bottle up runs initially. Historical bowl trends show unders hitting 55% in first halves for games with totals under 50.

Expect a chess match early in this one, with punts and field goals dominating the first half. This 1H under cashes as Pavia looks rusty early on. Fade the hype, and fade the offenses in this one.