As the clock ticks down to kickoff in the 2025 College Football Playoff quarterfinal at AT&T Stadium, there is one play that I can’t stop thinking about. It involves fading the best team in the country over the last two seasons. The Buckeyes, led by young phenom Julian Sayin, have lit up the scoreboards all season, averaging 34.9 points per game. But Wednesday night’s matchup against a gritty Miami Hurricanes squad sets up for a defensive grinder, where Ohio State's offense gets bottled up and falls short of their team total.

Let’s talk about Miami's underrated defensive line, a unit that's been flying under the radar but wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks. The Hurricanes racked up 36 sacks this season (2.8 per game), with edge rushers like Rueben Bain Jr., Akheem Mesidor, and Keionte Scott each notching 5+ sacks. This group thrives on disrupting rhythm, forcing hurried throws and negative plays—exactly the kryptonite for an Ohio State attack that's relied on clean pockets. Miami's front seven allowed just 112.8 rushing yards per game, stuffing the ground game and putting offenses in obvious passing downs where their pass rush feasts. The Buckeyes' trio of running backs combined for over 1,700 rushing yards, but against Miami's wall, expect stalled drives and field goals instead of touchdowns.

Adding to the intrigue is the spotlight on Julian Sayin, the redshirt freshman QB who's dazzled with an 80.6% completion rate and Heisman finalist buzz. But this Cotton Bowl marks the biggest stage of his young career—the lights of a CFP quarterfinal against a top-10 foe, with national title implications on the line. Sayin has thrived in controlled environments, but the extra-bright glare here could lead to his first real struggles. He's netted negative rushing yards without a ground touchdown threat, limiting dual-threat escapability. Miami's secondary, bolstered by Bryce Fitzgerald and Jakobe Thomas, has forced 1.1 interceptions per game, ready to capitalize on any rookie jitters. In a high-stakes debut like this, expect conservative play-calling from Ryan Day, leaning on short passes that chew clock but don't explode for points.

Don't overlook Ohio State's cupcake schedule this year, which inflated their gaudy offensive numbers. The Buckeyes feasted on lesser foes like Grambling State, Ohio, and a favorable conference schedule, padding stats against bottom-tier defenses. Preseason projections pegged their slate as the third-easiest in the Big Ten, avoiding some conference heavyweights until late. Sure, they notched wins over ranked teams, but Miami represents a step up in physicality and speed. The Hurricanes' defense has clamped down lately, holding three of their last four opponents to single digits and none of the past five to 20+ points. This isn't the soft landing Sayin & Co. are used to—it's going to be a war in the trenches.

Other factors tilt toward the under: The total game over/under sits at a meager 40.5, signaling oddsmakers expect a defensive slugfest. Miami's run-heavy approach with Mark Fletcher could dominate time of possession, starving Ohio State's offense of snaps. Expect a 20-13 Buckeyes win, well under the 26.5 team total threshold. Weather won't factor in the dome, but Miami's chip-on-shoulder mentality as underdogs means they'll sell out to contain explosions.

Miami's fierce DL, Sayin's big-game inexperience, Ohio State's soft schedule, and a low-scoring script make the Buckeyes team total under a no-brainer. Hammer it before the line moves any lower—your bankroll will thank you when the final whistle blows with the Buckeyes hovering around 20 points.