The 2026 Duke's Mayo Bowl between the 5-7 Mississippi State Bulldogs and the 8-4 Wake Forest Demon Deacons in Charlotte's Bank of America Stadium tonight looks like a snoozefest on paper. I’ve got a play I absolutely love in this underrated Bowl Game. The winning coach will be doused in mayo, and I’ve got the inside scoop on who that will be…

Mississippi State's 5-7 record is rare for a Bowl Game, but their gauntlet of a schedule ranks in the top 30 nationally, grinding through powerhouses like Georgia, Texas, and Ole Miss. They hung tough, losing five games by a touchdown or less, showcasing resilience in the trenches. Wake Forest? Their slate ranks 70th—padded with wins over cupcakes like Western Carolina and North Carolina A&T. The Deacs feasted on lesser competition but crumbled against ranked opponents, going 0-3 with blowout losses to Ole Miss and Clemson. In a neutral-site clash, Mississippi State’s SEC physicality—led by a defensive line that notched 28 sacks—will overwhelm Wake's finesse-oriented front. Expect the Bulldogs edge rushers to disrupt QB Robby Ashford, forcing hurried throws and stalled drives.

Opt-outs and injuries further tilt the scales. Wake is shorthanded offensively, missing star running back Demond Claiborne (907 rushing yards, 10 TDs), who's sitting out for the NFL Draft. Mississippi State, conversely, reports minimal attrition—QB Blake Shapen (3,000+ yards, 22 TDs) and RB Keyvone Lee are full-go, with only minor portal exits like WR Kelly Akharaiyi not impacting the core. This depth disparity means MSU's balanced attack (averaging 28.3 PPG) exploits Wake's 98th-ranked run defense, which surrenders 165 yards per game. Bulldogs convert red-zone trips at an elite 89% clip, turning possessions into points while Wake's -5 turnover margin gifts extra opportunities.

Discipline dooms the Deacs too. Wake ranks a dismal 131st in penalty yards per game (73 YPG), self-sabotaging with flags that extend drives for opponents. Against a disciplined MSU squad (55th in penalties), these mental lapses compound. Coach Jeff Lebby's Bulldogs thrive in chaos, forcing 1.4 turnovers per game, and Wake's ball-security issues (-5 margin) play right into their hands.

The sharp money's on Mississippi State in this spot, with the line moving from -2.5 to -3. Fade the record illusion—hammer Mississippi State -3 before it climbs any higher. In a game defined by physicality and execution, the Bulldogs pull away late, covering comfortably in a 31-24 grinder.